Förra veckans kupong
Det blev en lågutdelande kupong förra veckan utan utdelning på 10 rätt och 23 kronor på 11 rätt. Det var dock nära miljonutdelning då både Liverpool och Man City såg ut att tappa när de låg under sent in i matcherna. Manchester City hade jag som säker favorit medan jag var inne på att det var läge att spela emot Liverpool. Även Wolves som jag ansåg var ett bra drag mot Arsenal spelade bra och deras kryss var i underkant enligt mig.
Burley fick det inte alls att stämma mot Sheffield United som fortsätter att övertyga. Det var mycket pengar som kom in på Sheffield efter att elvorna släpptes så den som var uppmärksam på detta kunde säkerligen ändå få in ett streck på 1:an, även om jag fortsatt anser att Burnley streckad till 23 % var ett bra drag.
Veckans rensare blev Newcastle (15 %) och Hull (13 %).
Denna veckan är betydligt svårare än förra utan vare sig Liverpool, Chelsea eller Manchester City på kupongen. Lägst odds för veckan är Leeds som tar emot Blackburn på Elland Road. I övrigt är det bara Tottenham som enligt oddsen har mer än 50 % sannolikhet att vinna. Med andra ord en riktigt tuff omgång att hitta bra singelstreck på.
En annan faktor som gör omgången extra svår är att stryktipsraden enbart består av 5 Premier League-matcher och hela 8 från Championship. Kan bli riktigt intressant denna veckan och jag tror nog vi får se minst 100 000 i utdelning på 13 rätt.
Match 13 Wigan – Brentford
Jag vet inte om jag är färgad av att ha läst Keith Wades rapporter i Club Gowi i flera år, men jag gillar Brentford. De spelar en bra fotboll gör mycket mål och skapar många chanser. De var tippade som ett topplag inför säsongen och men fick en dålig start resultatmässigt. Spelmässigt var de värda fler poäng och detta har nu börjat jämnas ut. Wigan har inte rosat marknad på något sätt i år och jag tycker Brentford ska ha bra chanser i denna matchen. Jag tycker det är en bra och intressant spik som just nu är streckad till 41 %. Oklart om det kommer att bli så mycket högre till matchstart, men bara den inte går över 45 % är det en spik för mig.
Match 10 Millwall – Charlton
Millwall är erkänt starka på hemmaplan och gör alltid mål. Charlton fick en bra inledning på säsongen men överpresterade enligt underliggande statistik. Har nu inte vunnit på 3 matcher och jag är tämligen säker på att de inte gör det här heller. 1an är aningen överstreckad mot dagens odds men jag har svårt att hitta bättre favoriter att backa. Jag tror att Millwall stänger under 2.00 i odds och så länge inte strecken drar iväg över 56-57 % kan jag ta denna som en bra singel.
Match 6 Birmingham – Fulham
Skulle kunna ha lagt denna som favorit då Fulham egentligen är favoriter i matchen. De är dock streckade enbart till 32 % just nu vilket gör att jag även ser det som ett drag. Solklart spel enligt mig. Fulham att vinna står i 2.30isch men streckas som klara dogs. Står sig detta är det en solklart singeldrag för att kunna gardera upp andra. Jag håller Fulham som det bättre laget och de ska ha över 40 % sannolikhet att ta denna matchen.
Match 9 Leeds – Blackburn
Jag har flera gånger denna säsongen spelat på Leeds med blandad framgång. De är det bästa laget i serien och vi kommer troligen få se dem igen i Premier League nästa år. Men denna veckan vill jag ändå försöka att fälla dem.
De är redan nu streckade till 79 %. Jag tror det kommer att öka närmare spelstart då många har svårt att hitta bra singelstreck. Alla som lägger en Tips-SM kupong kommer att singla denna matchen. Jag tycker att åtminstone krysset ska vara med och även 2an på ett större system. Leeds har inte 80 % sannolikhet att ta denna matchen och definitivt värde på andra sidan.
Med få favoriter bli utmaningen att hålla nere antalet streck genom att hitta spikar med höga odds. Brentford och Millwall är två som jag tagit upp men utöver det är det svårt. För bra resultat gäller det att vara aktiv närmare matchstart och se vart strecken ligger och vart pengarna kommer in. Många matcher som jag känner att det kan bli aktuellt att köra 1-2 på där det kan gå lite hur som helst.
Regler för Tips-SM
Reglerna för Tips-SM är enkla. Under sex veckor får man lägga en stryktipsrad för 64 kronor, vilket motsvarar sex halvgarderingar. Varje spelares fem bästa veckor räknas ihop och ger en totalsumma. Flest rätt efter de sex veckorna vinner.
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