Förra veckans kupong
Året började med en riktigt intressant rad på stryket. Jag hade stora förhoppningar på att vara med men det slutade med en besvikelse. Endast 9 rätt trots att jag i mångt och mycket var rätt ute och hade den näst största rensaren på kupongen (Southampton). Utdelningen blev bra och för 13 rätt betalades det ut 667 558 kronor.
Två av förra veckans drag satt då jag hade med både Newcastle och Southampton. Norwich tokfloppade dock mot ett starkare Man U.
Favoriterna var det destovärre med. Båda Premier League lagen klarade av att bära sitt favoritskap, men i Championship var man ut och seglade både på Leeds och WBA.
Veckans rensare blev Southampton (14 %), Wolves – Newcastle oavgjort (18 %), och Sheffield Wednesday (11 %).
Veckans kupong
Förra veckan kände jag hade alla ingredienser för att kunna bli en kupong där det blir bra utdelning och där man är med på tåget. Denna veckan känns svårare och jag hade inte samma direkta och spontana idéer.
Det betyder dock bara att man får analysera djupare och följa med i nyheterna bättre. Förra veckan fick jag på nosen av att backa storfavoriterna i Championship. Denna veckan spelar inget av topplagen där på hemmaplan vilket gör att oddsen är betydligt jämnare, som det kanske vara i denna jämna serien?
Egentligen är det enbart Manchester City som är en storfavorit jag håller högt.
Veckans favoriter
Match 10 Huddersfield – Brentford
Även om jag åkte på Championshipfavoriterna förra veckan kan jag inte låta bli att göra samma sak igen. Brentford är ett topplag och har absolut bäst underliggande statistik i serien tillsammans med Leeds. Huddersfield är sämst tillsammans med Charlton och Luton. Strecken just nu 55 % på Brentford, Håller detta sig under 60 är det en riktigt bra favorit att singla på en annars svår kupong.
Match 9 Derby – Hull
Hull i skrivande stund streckad till 25 % ser riktigt bra ut på kupongen. Ingen favorit men bör enligt mig det närmsta jag kommer en bra singel på kupongen.
Jag gav dem förtroendet förra veckan när de tog emot Fulham och förlorade trots ett bra övertag (enligt statistiken). Derby däremot räddade en poäng sent när man kvitterade borta mot Middlesboro i den 91 minuter.
Jag håller Hull som ett bättre lag än Derby och även om Derby har ett starkt hemmafacit ser jag inte alls att denna streckfördelningen är korrekt. Allt under 30 % på Hull är ett givet singeldrag. Står Derby över 38 % lämnas den utanför kupongen.
Veckans drag
Match 6 Brighton – Aston Villa
Visst ska Brighton vara favorit emot AV men detta är ju nästa löjligt lågt? 1,65 är oddset i skrivande stund och även om laget är understreckat på kupongen kan jag inte riktigt förstå detta. På min kupong kommer Brighton tidigt att garderas upp. Jag ser inte Brighton som tillräckligt bra för att bära upp närmare 60 % av kupongerna.
Match 12 Preston – Charlton
Match 13 Sheffield W – Blackburn
Brentford, Leeds och WBA är de klart bästa lagen i Championship. Därefter är det jämnare och att inte gardera upp favoriter som är streckade över 65 % känns som tjänstefel på denna kupongen. Alla streck på dessa matcher vill i alla fall jag ha med.
Övriga tankar
För att chans på riktigt stora pengar blir en nyckel för mig att gardera Man City och hoppas att favoriterna i Championship faller. Det är en överlag klurig omgång och jag har ingen riktigt känsla på bra singlar till bra nivåer. Att singla två bortalag i Championship är definitivt en chansning som förhoppningsvis kan bära frukt.
Utgångrad
Min rad är baserad på U 7-3-100 vilket betyder 7 helgarderingar, 3 halvgarderingar, 3 singlar och 10 utgångsstreck.
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