Martingale
Fördelar: Kan gå väldigt snabbt uppåt
Nackdelar: Kan gå lika snabbt till noll.
Utformining
Martin Gale är den absolut mest kända insatsstrategin på marknaden. Systemet härstammar från Frankrike och slutet på 1800-talet där det användes för att vinna pengar på casinon. Systemet är känt för att vara ett sätt att lura systemet och göra en riskfri vinst.
Strategin går ut på att vid varje förlust dubbla sin insats på nästa spel. På detta sätt skapar man alltid en vinst på sina spel när det kommer en vinnare, oavsett hur många förluster som det varit tidigare. Detta då en vinst hela tiden täcker de tidigare förlusterna och ger en avkastning på samma insats som man startade serien med. Strategin fungerar som allra bäst med odds som är 2.00 eller precis över för att hela tiden ge en avkastning med en unit.
Exempel:
Säg att man lägger 1 spel med 100 kronor (1 unit) och förlorar. Nästa spel dubblas insatsen till 200 kronor (2 unit). Även detta spel förloras och man dubblar återigen insatsen på nästa spel till 400 kronor (4 units). Detta spel vinner och man cashar in 800 kronor (400 x 2.00). De totala insatser under serien är 700 ( 100 + 200 + 400 ) vilket ger en vinst på totalt 100 kronor ( 800 – 700 ). På detta sätt fungerar det oavsett hur många spel i serien som förlorar i rad. Vid varje vinst kommer man alltså göra en vinst till kassan på 1 unit.
Detta kan tyckas vara ett vattentätt system, men det finns oerhörda risker med systemet.
Skulle oturen vara framme, vilken den kommer att vara om man spelar tillräckligt länge, så kommer man att stöta på en förlustsvit på över 10. Skulle man förlora 10 raka spel skulle nästa spels insats vara uppe i 1024 units. Med exemplet ovan om 100 kronor per unit skulle detta betyda en insats på 102 400 kronor enbart för att täcka sina förluster och skapa en avkastning på 100 kronor. Skulle även detta förlora dubblas insatsen igen och igen och igen.
Många tänker säkert att man aldrig missar 10 spel i rad, men det händer oftare än man tror. Detta är såklart den stora begränsningen i systemet som gör man förr eller senare kommer förlora hela sin kassa i sin förhoppning att täcka sina förluster.
Money management
Precis som med vilket systemet som helst gäller det att ha en bra money management. Det gäller i allra högsta grad om man använder sig utav Martinagale systemet. Genom att lägga in en del begränsningar i systemet kan man utnyttja det till att snabbt skapa en större spelkassa. Dessa begränsningar ska leda till att begränsa förlusterna när de väl inträffar och samtidigt njuta av stadiga vinster.
Första begränsningen är att man ska fördela sin spelkassa i 5 lika stora delar. Säg att du har en spelkassa på 20 000 kronor. Denna delar i 5 delar på 4 000 per styck.
Denna 4000 fördelas på 64 units vilket ger strax över 60 kronor per spel. Detta är den insats som kommer ligga till grund för systemet och den insats som man kommer att sikta till att vinna i varje serie. Anledningen till just 64 units är att det är så mycket som behövs för att kunna lägga det sjätte spelet i en serie med 5 raka förluster ( 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 ).
Detta är den andra begränsningen. Skulle det sjätte spelet förlora biter man i det sura äpplet och bekänner sin förlust. Insatserna stiger oerhört fort och det är bättre att hoppa av i tid för att begränsa riskerna.
I övrigt följer man systemet och försöker vinna 60 kronor genom att dubbla sina insatser efter varje förlust. Skulle man lyckas stänga 64 serier har man fördubblat sin fördelade kassa. Detta har man gjort redan efter 64 vinster, vilket gör att man ganska snabbt kan uppnå målet.
Efter dessa 64 vinster är den totala spelkassan är nu uppe 24 000 vilket ger en ny fördelad spelkassa på 4 800 kronor ( 24 000 / 5 ). Dessa 4 800 delas sedan upp 64 nya units på 75 kronor stycket som man försöker vinna 64 serier med.
Skulle man istället förlora 6 raka spel är den fördelade spelkassan nästintill förlorad. Enbart det man vunnit innan förluststreaken kommer återfinns. Det är därför dags att räkna om dina kassor och fördela insatserna igen.
På detta sätt riskerar man inte hela sin kassa men kan ändå växa sin spelkassa relativt fort.
För att utnyttja den spelstrategi bör man ha en bra värderingsmodell så att man har ett större värde på de spel som har högre insats. Med tanke på att det sjätte spelet i en serie har en insats som är 32 gånger så stor som det första spelet bör den även ha ett väldigt mycket större värde.
Slutkommentar
Martingale är ett system som i teorin är otroligt bra. I verkligheten är det oerhört riskfyllt och utan begränsningar kommer man förr eller senare att förlora sin spelkassa.
Med begränsningar kan däremot systemet vara ett roligare sätt att spela som kan hjälpa till att bygga en större kassa. Risken i systemet är inte så mycket större än i många andra strategier. I de fall man kommer till det sjätte spelet riskerar man 10 % av sin totala spelkassa, vilket självklart är i högsta laget. Det är dock hanterbart och förhoppningsvis kommer man inte dit alldeles för ofta.
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