Förra veckans kupong
Ännu en lågutdelande vecka på stryket med 35 000 kronor på 13 rätt. Jag var oerhört rätt ute i mina spel och satte både favoriterna och en av dragen. Leeds bar hela vägen vilket gjorde att jag inte fick full pott på dessa spelen, men klart godkänd vecka. Jag hamnade på 10 rätt på Tips-SM då jag rykte på Tottenham, WBA och Arsenal. Trist att åka på två matcher som man garderat upp och en gardering som man sent valde att ta bort.
Veckans rensare blev Tottenham X (19 %) och QPR X (19 %). Ingen riktigt storskräll blev det.
Veckans kupong
Denna vecka ser vi en annorlunda kupong. 5 matcher från landslagsspel i EM-kvalet och resterande från tredje divisionen i England. Jag är inte vass på någon av kategorierna och hade det inte varit för Tips-SM hade jag stått över denna.
I och med att min kunskap är lägre och jag inte känner för att lägga tiden det krävs på att lära mig nya serier kommer jag gå mer på streck än vanligt. Med utgång i att marknaden är relativt effektiv får jag leta streck enbart på differenser med streckfördelningen.
Veckans favoriter
Match 11 Northampton – Crewe
Crewe är favoriter på bortaplan mot Northampton enligt hur oddsen ligger just nu. Strecken däremot visar tvärtemot. Rent värdespel på understreckad favoriter gör att detta blir ett utgångsdrag jag kommer att hålla som en singel om inte det blir en markant skillnad till matchstart.
Match 10 Ryssland – Belgien
Ryssland har blivit ett betydligt bättre landslag de senaste åren och har enbart tappat poäng borta mot Belgien i gruppspelen. Platsen i EM är alltså redan bärgad. Belgien har en guldgeneration med massor av världsspelare i truppen.
Belgien är just nu enbart streckade till 39 % men har 50 % enligt oddsen. Självklar spik för mig. Enda frågetecknet är att det räcker med kryss för Belgien för att säkra sin förstaplats i gruppen.
Veckans drag
Match 4 Kroatien – Slovakien
Kroatien är starka hemma och har ett riktigt bra landslag som spelade VM-final för inte länge sen. Till denna matchen saknas dock flera viktiga spelare vilket gör att jag blir lite orolig. Slovakien har gjort det bra än så länge och kämpar fortfarande om andraplatsen. Kroatien är redan överstreckade och ju närmare matchstart vi kommer desto fler kuponger kommer ha Kroatien som singel.
Jag tror att krysset definitivt ska vara med för att försöka få lite pengar på veckans kupong. Detta är för många den klaraste singeln tillsammans med Österrike och den måste vi försöka fälla.
Match 10 Bolton – Milton Keynes
Bolton är ett gammalt gäng som spelade i Premier League under lång tid. Nu härvar de nere i tredjedivisionen och ligger just nu sist. Detta möte är en riktig bottenkamp mellan jumbon och tredje-jumbon. Svenska folket håller just nu Bolton som stor favorit i detta möte vilket ser oerhört fel ut enligt oddsen.
Två värdelösa lag som möts och stort värde på bortalaget. Jag är sugen på singelstrecket i denna matchen och ser det som ett solklart drag.
Övriga tankar
Många kuponger kommer att vara på Österrike och Kroatien. För att det ska bli pengar behöver minst en av dem tappa. Lägger man en rad utanför Tips-SM kan en idé vara att villkora att minst en av dessa lag tappar poäng. Vinner båda är det risk att det blir ännu en vecka med tråkig utdelning.
Mitt bästa tips inför helgen är att hålla nere insatserna och enbart köra för stora pengar. Det finns bättre veckor än denna att spela på och att göra en ”allt eller inget”-strategi känns som bästa valet.
Regler för Tips-SM
Reglerna för Tips-SM är enkla. Under sex veckor får man lägga en stryktipsrad för 64 kronor, vilket motsvarar sex halvgarderingar. Varje spelares fem bästa veckor räknas ihop och ger en totalsumma. Flest rätt efter de sex veckorna vinner.
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