Förra veckans kupong
Äntligen en lite större utdelning på kupongen med 21 stycken vinnare med 13 rätt som tog hem 650 000 kronor vardera. I efterhand ser inte kupongen alls svår ut men man lyckades ändå hamna fel och blev utan utdelning på Tips-SM kupongen.
Båda min favoriter höll, trots att båda fick kämpa oväntat mycket för sina segrar. Sheffield Wedhade oavgjort fram till den 88e minuten när de tappade in en boll till sist mot WBA. Enligt statistiken var Sheffield värd åtminstone 1 poäng och jag står fast vid att det var ett bra spel.
Värdespiken på Preston gick inte hem och värdet var även borta till matchstart. Dessa värdespel där favoriten är understreckat tidigt på veckan känns som något som jag inte ska gå på. Smarta kuponger spelar ner dessa och vid starttid ligger dem rätt/värdet är borta.
Veckans rensare blev Norwich endast streckad till 6 %. Utöver denna megarensaren var Arsenals x till 19 % och Millwalls seger till 12 % de stora strecken man borde haft. Annars var kupongen förvanansvärt favoritbetonad med tanke på utdelningen. Det krävs inte att fälla många favoriter för att göra en bra vinst på Stryktipset.
Behöver jag säga att det är Jackpot?
Det är klart att det är jackpot och denna gång en ovanligt stor sådan. TipsExtra firar 50 år och Svenska Spel väljer att lägga en Jackpot på hela 25 miljoner för detta jubileum. Spännande!
Tidigare veckor har jag haft svårt att se vilka favoriter som ska hålla och ofta velat gå emot många. Denna vecka känner jag att alla fem lågoddsare på kupongen är starka favoriter och hade troligen varit spikar vilken annan vecka som helst.
Match 1 Chelsea – West Ham
Förra veckan valde jag att gå emot Chelsea men denna veckan är de tillbaka som en stark favorit. Även om det är Derby är det inte ett av de mest infekterade i London.
Chelsea har något på gång med sitt lag och det är otroligt kul att se. Såg matchen mot Valencia i Champions League i veckan och sättet de spelar fotboll är så långt i från det som man förknippat med Chelsea under många år.
West Ham går samtidigt kräftgång och har inte vunnit sen 22 september. Jag ser inte att de kan komma till Stanford Bridge och skapa oreda för detta Chelsea. 1an ligger just nu rimligt streckad och blir den inte alldeles för nerspelad ser jag det som en bra spik för att kunna lägga strecken på andra matcher.
Match 10 Leeds – Middlesbrough
Även Leeds är ett återkommande spel för mig på kupongen. Underliggande statistik håller dem som bäst i serien och de har börjat tuffa på bra i serien.
Middlesbrough tog ett skutt i och med hemmasegern mot jumbon Barnsley i veckan, men det kunde lika bra ha slutat på andra hållet. Borta mot ett formstark Leeds ska man inte ha en chans och jag sätter även Leeds som en bra spik på systemet. Strecken ligger rimligt just nu precis som i fallet med Chelsea.
Match 11 Brentford – Luton
I och med att jag håller två stora favoriter som väldigt stark måste jag hitta minst en av de resterande att fälla för att det ska bli några pengar. Även om jag troligtvis kommer gardera upp med krysset både i Liverpool och Tottenham så ser jag störst chans för en skräll på Griffin Park.
Brentford har blivit lite av ett favoritlag då man följt dem i många år genom Gowis nyhetsbrev. Han skrev också ett intressant inlägg om dem i veckan angående truppläget. Brentford är ett topp 3-lag enligt underliggande statistik men de har ett stort problem. Truppen är tunn.
Med det tuffa matchandet kommer de börja tappa poäng och gjorde även så i veckan borta mot Blackburn. Nu möter man ett Luton som började serien bra resultatmässigt, men som fallit tillbaka ju längre säsongen gått. Segern i veckan tog dem ovanför nedflyttningstrecket och lite andrum.
Brentford är just nu streckad till 70 % vilket är alldeles för mycket. Visst är det troligt att de vinner, men jag ser dem som den bräckligaste favoriten på kupongen och strecken på Luton bör definitivt vara med.
Match 11 Nottingham – Cardiff
Jag tycker det är svårt att hitta de självklara dragen denna veckan, men denna känns som något som kommer vara med på alla smarta system.
Nottingham överpresterar mot den underliggande statistiken, är väldigt överstreckade och möter ett inte alls ofarligt Cardiff. Att fälla Nottingham i denna matchup och till dessa streck är obligatorisk. Frågan är bara om de fortfarande är så överstreckade på lördag klockan 16. Jag tycker dock att även om strecken hamnar rätt så är det bra skrällchans för bortalaget och kör 2an som mitt utgångsdrag.
För att det ska bli pengar bör minst två av de stora favoriterna falla och minst en förlora. Jag tror som sagt att Luton har bra förutsättningar för att fälla Brentford. Den andra skrällen bör komma med antingen Brighton eller Bournemouth.
Som strecken ligger nu är två bra favoriter Stoke och Birmingham. Detta kommer dock justeras till matchstart men ska ändå ses som bra utgångstecken och spikar i mindre system.
Stor jackpot gör att det kommer vara en hel del stora system ute på marknaden. Det gäller därför att hitta något särskilt för att man ska bli stor vinnare på lördag. Att enbart leta värdesteck och att fälla favoriter kommer antagligen inte räcka utan man måste få bort de smarta systemen med överstreckade favoriter också.
Min tanke var att enbart köra dessa inlägg under Tips-SM men i och med jackpoten kör jag en vecka till. Resten av året tar jag paus från detta då jag är på resande fot. Får se hur det bli till nästa år men som jag känner just nu är detta fruktansvärt kul och om det fortsätter vara kul fortsätter jag skriva.
Ni får gärna komma med feedback om ni uppskattar inläggen!
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Não acho que o título do seu artigo corresponda ao conteúdo lol. Brincadeira, principalmente porque fiquei com algumas dúvidas depois de ler o artigo.
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