Förra veckans kupong
Efter ett uppehåll hela december var tanken att börja med dessa inlägg igen direkt i januari. Jag valde dock att även hoppa över första omgången för året då det enbart var FA-cupen på kupongen.
Ointressant enligt då jag trodde på dålig utdelning. Omgången landade ändå på 172 000 på 13 rätt och en skaplig omsättning på drygt 22 miljoner.
Veckans kupong är intressant med många storfavoriter på hemmaplan. Lagen har matchats hårt och roterat med spelartruppen under vissa matcher. Det finns definitivt utrymme för att fälla en del favoriter känner jag.
Match 1 Tottenham – Liverpool
Stormatchen på kupongen och även den som kommer att avgöra vilka som får 13 rätt på lördag i och med den sena matchstarten.
Mina tankar på matchen är att många kommer att försöka fälla Liverpool av de stora systemet. Som det set ut redan nu är Liverpool understreckade och jag tror inte det kommer att bli någon skillnad på lördag. Liverpool är ruskigt starka som alla vet denna säsongen och jag känner att en spik på Liverpool kan ge utrymme att fälla andra favoriter.
Match 2 Chelsea – Burnley
Chelsea har varit en favorit under stora delar av denna säsongen. Det har på sistone blivit väldigt inprisat både i odds och streck på stryktipset. Efter att nu ha förlorat två raka hemmamatcher i PL är Burnley en tacksam motståndare som Chelsea inte bör ha några problem med.
Jag ser inte att Burnley ska vara värt att ha med på strecken här utan singlar med största sannolikhet Chelsea.
Match 3 Manchester United – Norwich
Kupongen fortsätter med nästa storfavorit på hemmaplan när Man U tar emot jumbon Norwich. Just nu är hemmalaget understreckat på kupongen vilket gör att det är en solklar singel om detta står sig.
Jag misstänker dock att detta kommer förändras till matchstart och jag känner att detta är en favorit jag vill fälla på kupongen för att få de stora pengarna. Man U är inte ett lag jag skulle luta mig mot och med skadeläget på framförallt försvarsidan + Pogba kan ett krisande Norwich säkerligen skrälla rejält här.
Match 4 Everton – Brighton
Everton åkte på en riktigt tungförlust mot Liverpools juniorer i FA-cupen i veckan. Detta sved och kommer att sitta i bakhuvudet på spelarna och fansen länge.
Nu har man chans att revanschera sig direkt genom en seger hemma på Goodison Park när Brighton gästar. Mycket talar för att de gör det men med är de fortsatt kraftigt överstreckade vid matchstart är åtminstone krysset intressant att ta med.
Match 5 Leicester – Southamton
Leicester är återigen en favorit i fara enligt mig. Trots att man ligger tvåa och är just nu närmsta utmanare till Liverpool så tror jag att laget kommer falla tillbaka en del. Ser man till xG har Leicester överpresterat kraftigt och troligtvis kommer detta att släppa.
Southampton däremot har bra xG siffror, särskilt på bortaplan och förhoppningsvis kan man störa Leicester. Efter mötet i Oktober där Leicester fullständigt mosade Southampton med 0-9 tror jag det blir betydligt mer tillknäppt detta och betydligt färre målchanser. Jag garderar tidigt och vill gärna ha med tvåan på kupongen.
Match 6 Wolverhampton – Newcastle
Wolverhampton har blivit väldigt nedspelade sedan oddsen till denna matchen släpptes i mellandagarna. -1 har gått från 2,22 till 1,77 i skrivande stund. Jag köper inte riktigt hela denna sänkningen och tycker Wolves är för stor favorit.
Står streck och odds sig väljer jag helt bort Wolves och går på x2 i denna match.
Match 7 Leeds – Sheffield W
Leeds är bästa laget i Championship och skapar mängdes med chanser varhe match samtidigt som man släpper till få. Även om Sheffield W är stabila och presterar bra så ser jag detta som en favorit att luta sig mot på veckans kupong. 1.
Match 8 Blackburn – Preston
Svårt möte som egentligen kan sluta hur som helst, vilket även oddsen indikerar. Jag blir sugen både på att sätta kryss och gubbe då det är så ovisst. Ser man till tidiga oddsrörelserna har pengarna kommit in på Preston hela vägen och sänkt oddset från 3,22 till 2,77. Jag tror ändå att detta kommer falla tillbaka en del till matchstart. Utgång x med mersmak på 2 i mitt tycke. Har man råd bör en helgardering vara ett bra alternativ.
Match 9 Charlton – West Brom
West Brom är tillsammans med med Brentford de lag som utmanar Leeds i toppen av tabellen. Charlton däremot härvar på och är påväg att dras in i bottenstriden på allvar.
xG visar att Charlton överpresterar trots sin redan svaga prestation medan West Brom är starka. Även om det tar emot att singla bortalag i andraligan så kan jag inte se annat än att WBA tar detta. Strecken ser även lovande ut och singeln är om det står sig given.
Match 10 Hull – Fulham
Kupongen mest givna utgångskryss. Fulham är ett lite bättre lag men Hull har hemmaplansfördel. Jag kan inte riktigt skilja lagen åt och känner att ett kryss är ett troligt resultat. Beorende på hur strecken blir och hur oddsen rör sig vi startelvor garderar jag med en av sidorna.
Match 11 Luton – Birmingham
Återigen en match med krysset i åtanke med lean åt Birmingham. Luton har verkligen fallit tillbaka resultatmässigt den senaste tiden och jag har svårt att se dem vinna för tillfället. Troligtvis blir det x2 på kupongen.
Match 12 Middlesboro – Derby
Middelesboro har kommit in i ett bra flow med fyra raka vinster, bland annat bort mot WBA. Derby är inte det laget som skrämmer direkt och även om hemmalaget här är överstreckade måste ändå utgångsstrecket vara en 1a med snabb gardering om budgeten tillåter.
Match 13 Reading – Nottingham
Två formstarka lag där jag har svårt att välja sida. Jag har svårt att helt ta bort Reading på hemmaplan medan jag inte heller vågar släppa ett Nottingham som kämpar om kvalplats till PL. Helgardering tidigt. Som utgång håller jag dock 2an om strecken står sig (29 % på Forest).
Kul vecka där det är många relativt stora favoriter runt 60 %. Det kan definitivt bli pengar om man prickar in rätt favoriter att falla.
Denna veckan körde jag en fullständig genomgång av alla matcher för att rivstarta året. I fortsättningen kommer det troligtvis bli samma upplägg som tidigare då många av de tveksamma matcherna bestämmer jag mig för strecken sent.
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