Förra veckans kupong
Från miljonutdelning veckan innan till fyrsiffrigt belopp för 13 rätt. Det var inte mycket till skrällar förra veckan och föga förvånande slutade utdelningen på drygt 8 000 kronor.
Vanligtvis går jag igenom de stora rensarna på kupongen i denna avdelningen, men vecka 8 fann ingen vinnare streckad under 20 %. Största rensarna blev i stället kupongens oavgjorda matcher som stod i runt 25 % stycket.
Trots att inget av mina drag gick in så satt ramverket för mig förra veckan. Det blev dock inte 13 rätt utan stannade på 11 rätt på grund av reduceringen.
Veckans kupong
Jackpottvecka igen på Stryktipset och en lite knepig kupong. 4 matcher från Premier League och resterna hämtas från andra divisionen. Kupongen saknar oddsmässigt stora favoriter förutom Liverpool och Chelsea, lag som tenderar att bli överstreckade mot mindre kända lag.
Nyckeln denna veckan är att hitta rätt favoriter att gå på i de relativt jämna matcherna och sedan strecka upp resterna. Det känns som att det kan bli svårt att prick in 13 denna veckan utan att ha stående rader eller stora system.
Veckans favoriter
Match 9 Millwall – Bristol City
Du som läser dessa genomgångar varje vecka vet att jag har ett agg emot Bristol City, helt enkelt för att de ligger bättre till i tabellen än de borde. De har under stora delar av säsongen överpresterat enligt underliggande statistik. Nu har det äntligen börjat gå lite emot dem och de har 3 raka förluster. Jag satsar på att det blir den fjärde på lördag.
Millwall gör inte mycket väsen av sig i ligan men har ändå häng på kvalplatserna men då krävs det att man vinner sådana här matcher.
Strecken ligger just nu helt rätt, men i brist på superspikar så nöjer jag mig med att gå emot Bristol City återigen.
Match 8 Sheffield W – Derby
En överstreckad hemmafavorit som spik?
Nja det får bli så denna veckan. Jag tror stenhårt på att Sheffield tar hem denna matchen. Sett över hela säsongen har Sheffield varit ett mycket bättre lag än Derby, trots det enbart skiljer tre poäng mellan lagen i tabellen. Underliggande statistik visar att Derby överpresterat enormt och Sheffield underpresterat resultatmässigt.
Hemmaplan och en sista chans emot kvalplatserna bör borda för en hemmaseger i matchen. Även om jag strecken just nu inte är jättesexiga. Drar det iväg för mycket på kan det vara värt att gardera, eventuellt med en bortaseger som just nu är mest understreckad.
Veckans rensare
Match 9 Fulham – Preston
Preston var med även förra veckan på kupongen, då som överstreckad hemmafavorit emot Hull. Då stod man pall för favoritskapet och tog en seger med 2-1 vilket jag tyckte var tråkigt då jag helgarderade matchen. I veckan förlorade man mot ett WBA som ser bra ut igen.
Båda dessa lagen ligger på playoff-platser och relativt jämna enligt underliggande statistik. Även om Fulham ska vara favoriter så är de just nu kraftigt överstreckade. I brist på konkreta spikar på kupongen tror jag att många väljer Fulham för detta. Jag går emot och helgarderar. Preston har absolut större chanser än nuvarande 17 % att ta hem detta. Gör de det kan det borda för bra utdelning.
Match 2 Watford – Liverpool
Tråkigt att upprepa sig gång på gång. Liverpool är grymma. Men jag tror att plumpen kommer och jag vill defintivt vara med kupongen när det händer. Watford till 11 % och framförallt krysset till 12 % är riktigt intressanta för en miljonutdelning till helgen.
Övriga tankar
Streckmässigt bör det varit bättre att spika Brentford, Southampton eller Stoke denna lördag. Men jag tror det är ett typiskt drag för stora system och väljer att ha med garderingar där. Att chansspika nägra matcher när man har stor tro, även om strecken ligger fel, kan ge bra utdelning i slutändan.
Utgångrad
Min rad är baserad på R 5-5-108 vilket betyder 5 helgarderingar, 5 halvgarderingar, 3 singlar och 11 rättsgaranti.
40 tankar om “Stryktipset v.9”
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