Förra veckans kupong
Jag var bortrest under förra veckan och hann därför inte med något inlägg. En streak blev bruten då det är första kupongen i år jag inte analyserar. Jag lämnade dock in ett system som stannade på 9 rätt.
Veckan rensare blev Newcastle (17 %), Wolves/Brighton kryss (18 %) och Reading (19 %.
Inga superrensare men tillräckligt många för att det skulle bli 266 666 kronor i utdelning. Detta trots att favoriter som Leeds (79 %), Stoke (68 %), Brentford (68 %), Sheffield U (67 %) och Arsenal (66 %).
Efter två veckor med jackpot är det nu vanlig vecka igen. Vi har ett intressant upplägg denna helg med tanke på att samtliga matcher bör spelas inför tomma läktare. Hemmaplansfördelarna är alltså begränsade i denna helgens matcher och jag tror att det kan båda för skrällar på sina håll.
Frågan är om det ens kommer bli matcher denna helgen? Med tanke på att andra länder valt att ställa in helt, är det inte helt osannolikt att även England innan helgen tar beslut att ställa in fortsatt seriespel.
Spännande tider i världen och inom idrottsvärlden.
Match 1 Aston Villa – Chelsea
Aston Villa har haft en tuff säsong, som väntat. Just nu placerade näst sist men med enbart två poäng upp till säker mark och fortsatt Premier League nästa år. Inte omöjligt att de klarar det.
Chelsea går på stabilt och spelar bra. Fjärde plats just nu, trea enligt xG. I och med att matchen kommer spelas utan publik försvinner mycket av hemmaplansfördelen på Villa Park och jag tror att Chelsea jobbar hem kvällsmatchen.
I det ska vara klasskillnad och så länge inte strecken vandrar upp mot 70 % sätter jag spik på Chelsea.
Match 8 Sheffield W – Nottingham
Jag har haft med Sheffield fler gånger på mina kuponger och jag fortsätter. xG-mässigt är de ett topplag i Championship och jag anser inte riktigt att det är inprisat i odds och streck just nu.
Nottingham är precis motsatsen. Tabellen visar att de är ett topplag medan underliggande statistik visar att de borde vara på nedre halvan.
Typiskt match där jag vill spela enligt statistiken medan svenska folket väljer att gå efter tabellen. Singel på onsdagslaget är taget till rimligt streckning.
Match 2 Brighton – Arsenal
Arsenal är inte så bra denna säsongen och tabellplaceringen är 9a i skrivande stund. Absolut inte godkänt för ett lag som siktar på Champions League. Laget har inte förlorat så mycket (bara sex förluster jämfört med Man c som har sju) men de spelar väldigt mycket oavgjort (flest i ligan tillsammans med Wolves).
Brighton är i högsta grad indragna i bottenstriden och de har enbart 2 poäng ner till nedflyttningsplats. Formen är dock katastrofal och man har nu verkligen kniven mot strupen att vända detta.
Att hemmaplansfördelen begränsas genom att matchen inte kommer ha publik behöver inte vara en nackdel i detta fallet. Mindre press på spelarna kan vara en relief när man är i den situationen som Brighton (och för den delen Arsenal också) är i. Jag helgarderar matchen och hoppas på en Brighton-seger till fina streck.
Match Huddersfield – Wigan
Två lag som inte presterar bra och som är indragna i nedflyttningsstriden. Jag håller Wigan som ett bättre lag och med begränsad hemmaplansfördel tycker jag inte att Hudds ska vara streckad över 50 %.
Att Wigan tar poäng ser jag som högst sannolikt och jag väljer att ta bort strecket på Huddersfield från kupongen. Wigan har inte släppt in mål på fyra matcher och kan förhoppningsvis fortsätta i samma spår denna matchen. 25 % respektive 23 % på x och 2an är taget.
Tidigt på veckan när jag skriver detta och lite pengar i omsättning. Just nu ser jag riktigt bra streck på både Southampton, Barnsley och Sheffield U. Streckfördelningen kommer dock ändras på dessa till matchstart men kan vara bra streck att titta på.
Min rad är baserad på R 5-5-108 vilket betyder 5 helgarderingar, 5 halvgarderingar, 3 singlar och 11 rättsgaranti.
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