Kvartalsrapport för perioden 2020-01-01 till och med 2020-03-31.
Efter att i stort sett hållit mig borta från Asien sen den svenska spelregleringen kom så började så smått att spela på Sportmarket igen i under hösten.
På grund av problem med bokföringen (den försvann när Sportmarket bytte system eller något) så blir därför fondstarten först den 1/1.
Ändå ganska skönt att ha raka kalenderår för sitt spelande. Jag kommer även att lägga om min andra fond så att den har bokslut vid årsskiftet istället för efter den första kvartalet enligt kalenderåret.
Jag följer under starten enbart en tjänst i denna fond: Gowi.
Jag har följt honom under många år nu och han är den ende som presterat kontinuerligt bra resultat under hela perioden jag spelat. Hade jag enbart följt honom, samt använt bra money management, så hade jag säkerligen kunnat vara åtminstone semipro vid det här laget.
I fonden kommer jag använda mig utav Flatbet, vilket skiljer sig från Gowis egna unitsystem. Flatbet kommer vid start att vara 1 % av kassan.
Du kan läsa mer om min strategi med fonderna genom att klicka på bilden nedan.

Resultat
Det blev ingen flygande start alls för fonden.

Fonden hade misär redan innan Coronautbrottet satte skräck i världen. Förlusten för första kvartalet summeras till runt 900€ vilket kanske inte var det man hade hoppats på när man startade upp efter nyår.
Jag vet dock sedan tidigare att det kan gå ner på detta sättet när man följer Gowi. Han har som ni ser ovan ett relativt högt genomsnittsodds vilket gör att svängningarna blir lite större från månad till månad eller kvartal till kvartal.

Samtliga månader gick back under kvartalet. Det låga antalet spel beror så klart på att det inte spelades några matcher i någon serie sedan början av mars. Förhoppningsvis kommer serierna igång igen inom kort.
Jämförelse
Jag har aldrig tidigare följt upp mina tjänster med att jämföra mina odds med Pinnacles stängningsodds. Detta kommer jag att börja göra i denna fonden vilket kommer bli oerhört intressant.
Det finns forskning som visar att Pinnacles stängningsodds är oerhört nära de faktiska sannolikheterna. Det är därför ett bra sätt att jämföra sig med dessa för att mäta om man har en vinnande strategi.
På de 117 spelen jag placerade under det första kvartalet slog jag stängningsoddsen på 62 % av matcherna. I procent räknat slog jag stängningsoddset med i genomsnitt 1,32 %.
En annan glädjande punkt är att jag slår Gowis rekommenderade odds med i genomsnitt 0,64 % under detta första kvartal. Det är alltså inga problem för mig att rygga hans spel och till och med få bättre resultat än honom.
Ligor
Jag har alltid varit selektiv när jag ryggar för att bara plocka ut de bästa ligorna för varje tjänst. Jag tror inte att Gowi har något Edge på flera av ligorna han följer.
Jag är dock tämligen säker på att han har koll på nedan ligor, med undantag från en.

Under första kvartalet har samtliga av Gowis ligor varit aktiva. MLS och J League hann precis starta innan man stängde ner. NFL hade slutspelet kvar när Januari drog igång.
Det ska bli riktigt intressant att se hur denna statistik utvecklar sig efter hand som det tillkommer fler spel. Jag har en aning om vilka serier som han har störst edge. Kommer det vara samma som slår Pinnacles stängningsodds?
Summering
Det är definitivt kul att vara igång igen även om resultatet är bedrövligt denna första månad.
Jag tycker det ska bli otroligt kul att följa mina jämförelser, dels mot Gowis odds, men framförallt jämfört med stängningsodds.
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